Winter 2021 – 2022 Outlook

Winter will officially begin on December 21, but before the season actually gets here, we already have some clues on how the winter months will play out. Last winter was certainly a memorable one with several freezes and cold fronts that were able to make it through the region. It is usually difficult to get similar winter patterns back-to-back, in a row, and it looks like climatology will again win out this time around.

The 2021 – 2022 winter season should be overall drier and warmer than average for Northeast Florida as La Nina’s influence will continue into the new year. Last winter a massive ridge was dominant over eastern Canada and Greenland while the northern Pacific saw heights below normal. This allowed several cold fronts to push into Northeast Florida, with cold air. This year heights in the northeast Pacific look to be higher and instead of a ridge over Canada & Greenland, troughs will exist. This likely will prevent significant periods of cold air from making it into Northeast Florida. There will be cold days and there will be freezes; however the more moderate air will make the winter more bearable.

Normally the area sees around 9 inches of rain during the months of December, January and February. It looks like the main storm track will line up for parts of the Midwest and the Plains to see quite the snow season but by the time the fronts enter Northeast Florida, the systems will be mostly dry. This season’s pattern will also not allow for many significant nor’easters to set up. The area can get several inches of rain during a nor’easter event but without these events, the area will come up short in the precipitation gauge.

An average winter day in Northeast Florida sees temperatures start out in the 40s, and highs will usually reach mid to upper 60s. These normals will likely hold true this year. Because of the lack of reinforcing shots of cold air, its likely temperatures will reach the 70s several times. We will see freezes this season but it doesn’t like we’ll come anywhere close the average of 15 days that usually report temperatures reaching 32 degrees.