The end of the tropical season is in sight, but we’ll likely see a couple of more developments before November 30. The area with the best chance of development is off the coast of North Carolina.
A tropical disturbance has lingered off the Southeast coast for several days. Upper level winds have really hindered development, but there’ll be a brief time period for development over the weekend. If it does develop, the system will likely remain a weak tropical storm before another front starts impacting the cyclone.
What’s notable with disturbance 92L off the coast of North Carolina is that if it develops, it’ll use the final name on the season’s designated list. The final name of the 2021 season is Wanda. Once the “W” name is used, the basin will proceed to a supplemental list, which will start over with the letter “A”.
Elsewhere in the Atlantic basin, we’ll continue to watch the Caribbean Sea. It’s usually a favorited area for development this time of year, and all signs point to disturbance that’ll need to be watched late in the week. Water temperatures remain warm, and shear will be conducive enough for development. Usually during MJO phases 8,1,2 and 3 the Atlantic basin seas an uptick in development. We're currently in phase 5 but will reach one of the more active phases next week.
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