So What Will The Midwest Blizzard Bring Us?

Effects from the Midwest/Northeast look minimal on the First Coast. Wednesday will start off warm but end on the wet side of things. Showers and a few thunderstorms, some strong, will progress through the region, early Wednesday afternoon. The biggest threat looks to be gusty winds. The Storm Prediction Center officially has North Florida under a 5% chance of severe weather.

The actual cold front will progress through region Wednesday night, leaving behind a cool, cloudy Thursday. High temperatures will struggle to reach 60 degrees on Thursday. Another, more significant, storm system will affect the region on Friday.

Summary:

• Wednesday= Rain after Noon; 0.30 inches of rain expected
• Thursday= Cloudy, Windy, Cool; late evening rains; 0.10 inches of rain expected
•  Friday= Rain; 1-2 inches expected

GFS Computer Model for Wed. 1 PM

Florida Lightning Awareness Day

LIGHTNING IS ONE OF NATURES DEADLIEST AND MOST UNPREDICTABLE
PHENOMENA.  THE CENTRAL FLORIDA PENINSULA IS THE MOST ACTIVE
LIGHTNING HOTSPOT IN NORTH AMERICA WITH THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING
ALMOST DAILY FROM LATE MAY THROUGH EARLY OCTOBER.  WE CANNOT CONTROL
THEM...SO IT IS CRITICAL TO RECOGNIZE THE THREAT LIGHTNING POSES TO
LIFE AND HEALTH.

WHETHER A THUNDERSTORM PRODUCES 10 BOLTS OR 10,000 BOLTS...THEY ALL
ARE POTENTIAL KILLERS. A DISTANT...DEVELOPING...OR WEAK THUNDERSTORM
MAY NOT APPEAR THREATENING...BUT STATISTICS INDICATE OTHERWISE.
STUDIES HAVE DISCOVERED THAT STORMS WITH INTENSE LIGHTNING TEND TO
STRIKE FEWER PEOPLE THAN STORMS THAT ONLY PRODUCE OCCASIONAL
LIGHTNING. THIS IRONIC FACT SUGGESTS THAT PEOPLE RECOGNIZE THE
LIGHTNING THREAT ASSOCIATED WITH STRONG STORMS BUT FAIL TO PERCEIVE
THAT VERY SAME THREAT WITH WEAKER ONES.

ONE CHARACTERISTIC THAT MAKES LIGHTNING SO DANGEROUS IS ITS EXTENSIVE
RANGE. OF ALL THUNDERSTORM THREATS...ONLY LIGHTNING HAS THE ABILITY
TO STRIKE OUTSIDE THE STORM PERIPHERY...MAKING IT THE FIRST STORM
HAZARD TO ARRIVE AND THE LAST TO LEAVE. LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE MORE
THAN 10 MILES FROM ITS PARENT STORM. BY CONTRAST...MOST THUNDER IS
INAUDIBLE BEYOND 10 MILES. THEREFORE...IF YOU CAN HEAR THUNDER...YOU
ARE ALREADY AT RISK.

THE OTHER CHARACTERISTICS THAT MAKES LIGHTNING SO DANGEROUS ARE ITS
TREMENDOUS POWER AND SPEED. THE AVERAGE BOLT CARRIES 20 THOUSAND
AMPS OF ELECTRIC CHARGE...100 MILLION VOLTS OF ELECTRIC
POTENTIAL...AND GENERATES A TEMPERATURE THAT CAN EXCEED 50 THOUSAND
DEGREES FAHRENHEIT. FURTHERMORE...ALL THIS ENERGY IS CONCENTRATED IN
A CHANNEL WITH A DIAMETER NO LARGER THAN A U.S. QUARTER. THIS ENERGY
DENSITY IS UNMATCHED IN THE HUMAN WORLD...EVEN INSIDE A NUCLEAR
REACTOR. FURTHERMORE...IT TRAVELS AT SPEEDS THAT APPROACH FOUR
THOUSAND MILES PER SECOND.

THE INSTANTANEOUS NATURE OF A LIGHTNING STRIKE MEANS YOU CANNOT AVOID
A STRIKE THE SAME WAY YOU WOULD A TORNADO OR HURRICANE. OUTRUNNING A
LIGHTNING BOLT IS NOT AN OPTION. FEW LIGHTNING SURVIVORS REMEMBER
EVEN BEING STRUCK...LET ALONE REMEMBER SEEING THE BOLT THAT STRUCK
THEM. 

LIGHTNING IS MOST DANGEROUS NEAR THE EDGE OF A STORM BECAUSE PEOPLE
OFTEN ASSOCIATE ITS THREAT WITH PEAK RAINFALL. HOWEVER...STUDIES
HAVE SHOWN THE MAJORITY OF LIGHTNING VICTIMS ARE NOT STRUCK DURING
THE HEIGHT OF THE STORM AS ONE MIGHT EXPECT. INSTEAD...THEY ARE
STRUCK BEFORE THE STORM REACHES ITS PEAK BECAUSE PEOPLE DO NOT SEEK
SHELTERS QUICKLY ENOUGH...OR SHORTLY AFTER THE RAIN HAS ENDED
BECAUSE PEOPLE LEAVE SHELTER TOO SOON.

ABSOLUTELY NO PLACE OUTDOORS IS SAFE FROM LIGHTNING. IN FLORIDA...
MOST PEOPLE WHO HAVE BEEN STRUCK WERE NEAR A BODY OF WATER.
THEREFORE...PEOPLE VISITING THE BEACH OR INVOLVED IN ANY WATER
ACTIVITIES NEED TO PAY PARTICULAR ATTENTION TO LOCAL WEATHER
CONDITIONS. OTHER VULNERABLE LOCATIONS INCLUDE OPEN AREAS SUCH AS
ATHLETIC FIELDS...PLAYGROUNDS...OR GOLF COURSES.

NO ONE CAN PREDICT WHERE LIGHTNING WILL STRIKE...BUT FORECASTERS CAN
PREDICT THE CONDITIONS THAT WILL PRODUCE IT. WHILE THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE DOES NOT ISSUE LIGHTNING WARNINGS...PRODUCTS SUCH AS
THE GRAPHICAL HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK DESCRIBE IN DETAIL THE DAILY
LIGHTNING THREAT ON A SCALE RANGING FROM NONE TO EXTREME.

IN ADDITION...SHORT TERM WEATHER FORECASTS INFORM WHEN AND WHERE
STORMS ARE FORMING OR ARE EXPECTED TO FORM...WHILE SPECIAL WEATHER
STATEMENTS ARE ISSUED TO WARN WHEN A STORM IS PRODUCING OR EXPECTED
TO PRODUCE EXCESSIVE LIGHTNING. THESE PRODUCTS ARE AVAILABLE TO THE
GENERAL PUBLIC THROUGH THE INTERNET AND THE NOAA WEATHER RADIO AND
SHOULD PLAY A CRITICAL ROLE IN DETERMINING WHETHER OUTDOOR
ACTIVITIES SHOULD BE DELAYED OR CANCELLED.

IF OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES ARE PLANNED...GET CONTINUOUS WEATHER UPDATES IF
THUNDERSTORMS ARE PREDICTED. BE PREPARED TO TAKE SHELTER INSIDE AN
ENCLOSED BUILDING IF A THUNDERSTORM APPROACHES OR FORMS NEARBY.
PEOPLE SHOULD HEAD INSIDE WHEN DARKENING CLOUDS APPEAR...EVEN IF
THUNDER HAS NOT BEEN DETECTED.

IF THUNDER IS DETECTED...HALT OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES IMMEDIATELY AND MOVE
INDOORS. REMAIN INDOORS UNTIL 30 MINUTES AFTER THE LAST CLAP OF
THUNDER IS HEARD. PICNIC PAVILIONS...BASEBALL DUGOUTS...BEACH
SHACKS...AND ISOLATED TREES SHOULD BE AVOIDED. IF AN ENCLOSED
BUILDING IS NOT AVAILABLE...THEN AN ENCLOSED METAL VEHICLE IS THE
NEXT BEST ALTERNATIVE. CONVERTIBLE AUTOMOBILES AND GOLF CARTS DO NOT
PROVIDE LIGHTNING PROTECTION.

January 2011 Jacksonville Weather Summary

January was an extremely cold month in Jacksonville, along with the usual winter roller coaster. The month averaged 5 degrees below normal. The highest temperature recorded was 76 degrees on the 1st and the coldest was 22 on the 13th.  The good news is that Jacksonville and surrounding areas were able to cut away at the rainfall deficit of over 19 inches, set last year.

• 5.75 inches of rainfall (+ 2.54 inches above normal)
• Deficit for the years 2010 & 2011 now stands at 17 inches

Rainfall was thanks to weather patterns that usually only around during El Nino time periods. (We are in strong La Nina)

Is the Groundhog Accurate?

Every February 2^nd crowds gather at Gobbler's Knob, in Punxsutawney, Pennsylvania. A groundhog, Punxsutawney Phil, burrowed inside his heated simulated tree trunk, is about to thrust or be pulled into the limelight at about 7:25 am once again. The gates open at 3:00 a.m., followed by live entertainment, music and a pre-dawn fireworks display helps to ignite (hopefully not literally!) the crowd that has gathered in anticipation of Phil's forecast. The awe-inspiring fireworks are set to lively music, which is just what the crowd generally needs on a cold rural Pennsylvania morning. Phil, and others like him, makes the most celebrated weather forecast of the year usually around the crack of dawn. Has spring sprung when Phil emerges from his burrow and doesn't see his shadow? Or should he scurry back into his burrow for six more weeks of winter weather if skies are clear and fair?

Historical Track Record of Punxsutawney Phil 1887–2010

• Shadow Seen= 99 

•  No Shadow= 16
•  No Record= 9

As far as accuracy goes, there are no official statistics. Statistics that are kept are literally all of the prediction spectrum. The National Prediction Center has Punxsutawney Phil's accuracy at 35 percent. Other private organizations have the groundhog's accuracy around 80 percent.


>>>Update: Phil did not see his shadow this morning. This "means" we will not have 6 more weeks of winter, and spring is around the corner. His prediction appears to be accurate for Florida but not for many of the Northern States. 

Smelling Smoke in Jacksonville?

A large controlled fire is going on right now in Baker County, in the Northern part of the Osceola National Forest. Westerly winds between 5-15 mph are sending the smoke directly toward Nassau and Duval Counties. Doppler radar is easily picking up on the heavy smoke plume. Smoke will subside tonight as winds calm.

The fact that prescribed burns are able to happen is just an indication of how much rain we have received this month. January will end with a surplus of rainfall of around 2.50 inches of rain. So far, 5.53 inches of rain has fallen this month. Last year's deficit of rainfall was 19.50 inches, so there is still a lot of rain to catch up on.

Heavy smoke on doppler radar.

Location of burn indicated by pushpins.

>>> Click here to track the smoke plume on radar.

WeatherFest at the University of North Florida

University of North Florida • Student Union Center
1 UNF Drive • Jacksonville, FL
Saturday, February 26th

Sponsored by the National Weather Service, the University of North Florida School of Engineering, and the Jacksonville Electric Authority, this daylong event will afford the public the chance to meet and interact with key members of the Northeast Florida meteorological community.  In addition to meeting National Weather Service forecasters and local media personalities, visitors will learn more about the important work being done by other critical agencies involved in hazardous weather preparedness such as emergency management, disaster response organizations, and many others.

WeatherFest will educate attendees on the forecast and warning process for local weather hazards as well as emergency response and disaster preparedness.  Displays and events for all ages will be presented including:  National Weather Service posters, equipment used in the weather observation and forecast process, severe weather safety presentations and demonstrations, a meteorological panel discussion, and interactive games and experiments for children.  There will also be exciting and informative exhibits produced in cooperation with the Jacksonville Museum of Science and History

 .

Tuesady, January 25th Summary

It was a wild but tame weather day across the First Coast and around the State of Florida. There were no reports of severe weather in the area- just some heavy rain. Officially, Jacksonville saw a record breaking 2.50 inches of rain. So far, for the month, Jacksonville has seen 3.11 inches of rain, which is 0.26 inches above normal. It does, however, look like the remainder of month will be on the quieter side.

Severe Weather Reports for 1/25/2011

National Synoptic Scenario for Tuesday 1/25.

The low pressure system that recently pushed through will only usher in slightly cooler air, here in North Florida. Cities in the Northeast part of the U.S. will not be as lucky. A swath of snow between 4 to 10 inches will likely cause travel problems on Wednesday.  

Heavy Rain Continues

Heavy rain will continue into the evening. The main threat will be heavy rain. Many locations have already picked up an inch of rain, with an additional inch or two possible.

Doppler Radar Rainfall Estimates

With falling temperatures and dew points, the severe weather threat will diminish with time. 


***UPDATE***

RECORD EVENT REPORT 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
544 PM EST TUE JAN 25 2011

...RECORD DAILY MAXIMUM RAINFALL SET AT JACKSONVILLE...

A RECORD RAINFALL OF 2.22 INCH(ES) WAS SET AT JACKSONVILLE TODAY. 
THIS BREAKS THE OLD RECORD OF 1.35 SET IN 1966.

$$

Steady Rain Moving In

Steady rain moving into town, moving from the West towards the East. Threat of any severe weather diminishing. Should last well into the evening hours.

Possible Severe Weather Event on Tuesday- 1/25

>>Summary:

• Heavy Rain Tuesday Evening / Early Morning Wednesday
• 1-2 Inches of Rain Possible
• Wind gusts to 60 mph and an isolated tornado

The entire State of Florida is set up for a possible severe weather event tomorrow and into Wednesday. On Tuesday, a deepening area of low pressure over the north Gulf of Mexico will track east-northeast and move across the Florida Panhandle and the peninsula during the evening and overnight period. A cold front extending southwestward from this low center will eventually track across Florida Wednesday morning. Moisture is forecast to increase rapidly during the day on Tuesday with dewpoints approaching the mid 60's. Modest instability will also exist. The one limiting factor will be the lack of daytime heating, with temperatures only in the low 60's. 


Tornadoes are likely in portions of Florida, near, and along Interstate 4, as depicted by the forecast model below. 

At the very least, heavy rainfall should be expected. Wide spread rainfall accumulations of one inch, with the possibility of isolated locations getting over 2 inches, is possible.

QPF totals so at least 2 inches of rain.

The best timing appears to be after the Tuesday rush hour. The Severe Weather Prediction Center officially has most of the State under a "slight", around 15%, chance of severe weather. 

>>> For more information visit the Severe Weather Center

Severe Cold Continues

It will not be how cold we get that will be impressive; instead, it will be how long the cold spell lasts. For the foreseeable future, around 2 weeks, temperatures will be at or below average, in North Florida. And thanks to a flow out of the west and southwest we are talking about damp/humid cold weather. Damp coldness is usually more unbearable than a dry cold. It does not look like this pattern will abide as we enter February either. 

There are two silver linings behind the forecast. One: we will not have record breaking cold temperatures everday. And two: There will be the last 1 or 2 chances, of the season, for a flurry or two.

>> For more information visit the Winter Weather Center

Not Your Average La Nina

One of the strongest La Niña events on record continues to influence the climate of the entire world. Flooding in Australia and the West Coast of the United States has meant rain here at home. But why? Usually, La Nina results in warmer, drier weather conditions for the Southeastern US. October and November resembled a normal La Nina pattern but a sudden change in the location of 2 significant high pressure systems changed the normal weather patterns. 

Normal El Nino and La Nina Weather Patterns

High pressure systems affect the North Atlantic Oscillation Index and Pacific-North America Index.  Thanks to the North Atlantic Oscillation, instead of having warm and dry air, we’re cold and moist due to the negative phase. The negative NAO index phase is dominated a weak subtropical high over Greenland and a weak Icelandic low.

What also helps the drought conditions and sends storms our way is a positive PNA- a strong high pressure system off in the eastern Pacific. To sum up the oscillations, they have basically superseded the La Niña. It is much more common to have a negative PNA during a La Nina and a positive PNA during an El Nino.

PNA Forecast

La Niña will seemingly hang on for much of the rest of the year and will have ramifications on the 2011 hurricane season.

La Nina Forecast

2010 Tied For Warmest Year on Record

While it may not seem like it was the warmest year here in Florida it was for the world. In the contiguous United States, 2010 was the 14th consecutive year with an annual temperature above the long-term average. Since 1895, the temperature across the nation has increased at an average rate of approximately 0.12 F per decade.

Combined global land and ocean annual surface temperatures for 2010 tied with 2005 as the warmest period on record at 1.12 F  above average. Africa and Western Asia saw the warmest temperatures. Global ocean surface temperatures for 2010 tied with 2005 as the third warmest on record, at 0.88 F above normal.

2011 Hurricane Forecast

The first hurricane forecast for 2011 is already painting an active picture. Weather Service International, WSI, the  leader is weather technology, is the one that has released its hurricane forecast. WSI predicts the following:

• Named storms (Winds >39 mph):          17           
• Hurricanes (Winds >74 mph):                 9
• Major Hurricanes (Winds >115 mph):      5

In addition, WSI claims there is a "significant threat" to the U.S. Gulf Coast. If the forecast were to come to fruition, then it would constitute an extremely active season.  An average season sees around 10 named storms, 6 hurricanes, and 2 major hurricanes. Two reasons can are stated for the active season: reduced shear and above average sea surface temperatures, across the Atlantic Basin. The 2010 season saw 19 total named storms, 12 hurricanes, and 5 major hurricanes.

2011 Hurricane Names

Arlene
Bret
Cindy
Don
Emily
Franklin
Gert
Harvey
Irene
Jose
Katia
Lee
Maria
Nate
Ophelia
Philippe
Rina
Sean
Tammy
Vince
Whitney

Possible Severe Weather Event on Tuesday- 1/18

Heavy rain and the possibility of severe weather is likely on Tuesday, of this week. Rain will accumulate to around an inch in many locations around North Florida. Rain is possible at any time of the day. A shortwave trough and associated low pressure system will come at us from the Gulf of Mexico and crisscross the state. With temperatures in the 70's, dew points in the 60's, and average amount a shear, a severe thunderstorm or two is possible. The biggest threats, thus far, appear to be gusty winds and an isolated tornado.

Estimated Rainfall 

GFS Model depiction for Tuesday- 1/18

Look for temperatures to slowly drop off throughout the week to normal and subnormal readings. Not anticipating any deep freezes or artic air masses though. Temperatures, however, will be 5 - 10 degrees below normal.

>>> A similar event occured on January 19, 2008...Check out the weather history here.

Car Tips for Winter Months

Simply put, there is no advantage  to let a car warm up, when it is cold outside. This goes against human knowledge and thought that it was right to do so. The only way to actually warm your car and help it during the winter months is to drive it. Just letting your car sit idle is the slowest way to bring it up to temperature and get the proper fluids flowing. In fact, excessive idling can actually damage your engine components, including cylinders, spark plugs, and exhaust systems.

If you are having trouble getting your car started , in cold weather, the are two possible things you will want to check: your engine oil could be too thick or the battery maybe weak.

49 Out Of 50 States

Snow on the ground in 49 of 50 states- including Hawaii

From Alabama to Wyoming, all of the States of the United States have some sort of snow cover, except for Florida. Official statistics are not kept on how often this type of event happens. Last year all 50 states had snow on the ground, at the same time. This even includes the tropical island of Hawaii. Hawaii is home to limited mountains but are tall enough in altitude to collect snow. Specifically, Mauna Kea on the Big Island is the mountain top that amasses the most snow in the Hawaiian Island chain.


>>>Check out the Winter Weather Center for the latest snow maps.

Earth's Poles on the Move

Tampa International was closed for a brief time period but not because of weather; it was because of earth's changing poles. The moving of the poles is nothing new our planet's magnetic field is in a constant state of change. At the moment, the North Pole is located in northern Canada, about 600 km from the nearest town: Resolute Bay, population 300, where a popular T-shirt reads "Resolute Bay isn't the end of the world, but you can see it from here."

The poles have always been on the move but not at the current 'rapid' pace. The north pole used to travel at  at an average speed of 10 km per year, lately accelerating to 40 km per year. At this rate it will exit North America and reach Siberia in a few decades. So why did this slow shift affect an airport in Florida? Well, what use to be runway 36, which stood for 360 degrees, now is closer to 10 degrees because of the shifting poles. Other airports across the country will face similar problems in the upcoming years. Jacksonville will have to relabel its runways sometime during the year 2012.    

Earth's North Pole continues to move away from North America and towards Asia. This means the South Pole is moving closer towards North America. But remember, the pace is slow, at only about 130 feet a year.

Multiple Freezes on the Way

Fresh snowpack over states in the southern part of the United States will help usher cold air into the First Coast this week.  Multiple freezes are on the way. Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday, and Friday will see temperatures dip below 32. Friday morning seems to be the coldest morning. A hard freeze is likely with temperatures falling to 26 degrees for several hours.

Temperatures will normalize on Sunday & Monday, before the next significant storm system enters the picture. Tuesday will bring temperatures in the mid 70's. Tuesday- the 18th- should also bring a decent shot of more rain, with the potential for thunderstorms. Another shot of winter will arrive once again after the next storm system.

GFS Model Depiction for Tuesday, January 18, 2011

Large Winter Storm to Affect the Deep South

A large winter storm will produce plenty of ice, snow, and severe thunderstorms across much of the eastern third of the nation. Here in Jacksonville it just looks like we will be dealing with thunderstorms. The timing looks like the rain will start late Sunday night and run through Monday night. So, if you have any plans on Monday that are weather dependent you will have to find alternative plans. It looks like the thunderstorms will be on the heavy side and produce plenty of rain and wind. Rain totals around North Florida could total around one inch. A few of the storms may be strong, but we are not looking at a wide spread severe weather outbreak.

Estimated Rainfall Amounts

 Frozen precipitation will be close but stay about 100 miles north of Jacksonville. Other locations in the Southeast may not be so lucky though. Ice should turn into snow into many locations in the Southeast.

Expected S.E. Snow Totals:

• Savannah, GA= Ice
• Macon, GA= Ice & 2 inches of snow
• Atlanta, GA= Ice & 3.5 inches of snow
• Columbia, SC= Ice & 3.0 inches of snow
• Winston Salem, NC= 4.5 inches of snow
• Raleigh, NC= Ice & flurries
• Charlotte, NC= Ice & 2.5 inches of snow

Southern snow means a cold, Canadian air mass will have no problems making its way to Florida. Expect many freezes from the 12th to the 16th. 

Beneficial Rains...More on the way

An energized jet stream is proving to be beneficial for the First Coast area. Officially, o.72 inches of rain fell in Jacksonville on Wednesday. This brings the monthly total to 1.47 inches for month, so far. Jacksonville only averages 3.69 inches of precipitation in January. That means we are more than halfway there of the expected precipitation.


More rainfall is on the way too. It looks another decent shot of rainfall in the forecast for Tuesday. In fact, even though small in size, this weather system is seemingly to be potent and will user some of the coldest weather since December. In fact, a string of freezes is possible starting on Thursday the 13th and lasting through Sunday the 16th.


Recent rainfall has lowered the fire threat substantially. The last time the entire North Florida area was at "low" was way back in October. Look for the threat to diminish even further as a series of unsettled should affect the area throughout the month.

Rainy 2011... So Far

So far, it has rained everyday in 2011. Will the trend continue? Nope. A sunny Monday & Tuesday is on tap. But rain will once again fall on Wednesday and Thursday. Rainfall these past two days has totaled just over .19 inches at the Jacksonville International Airport.

• Monday, January 1, 2010 = Trace
• Tuesday, January 2, 2010 = 0.19

Warm & Wet January On Tap

Typically the low temperature averages 41.9 degrees and the average high is 64.2 degrees in January, here in Jacksonville. So far we have been well above both of those degree values, and the trend will continue.

	The jet stream has retreated to the Ohio Valley meaning that the cold air and winter whether will be locked up in parts of the Upper Midwest for some time. Our weather will be influenced by a more southwesterly flow. Meaning that will have have to monitor the Gulf of Mexico for any potential rain that could head our way. This pattern does tend to increase or precipitation levels because of the higher dewpoints that are pushed into our area.
	January, statistically, is the second cloudiest month of the year, on the First Coast. Only 58% of the potential sunshine actually makes it through the clouds to the surface. Jacksonville's average precipitation is 3.69 inches of rainfall. Check out (below) how much rainfall the Hydrometeorological Prediction Center has us receiving during the next 5 days. Two inches of rainfall! With precipitation totals that high we may be able to knock down the 19 inch rainfall deficit of 2010 a little bit.

Drought Conditions Continue

The First Coast enters the new year with a rainfall deficit of nearly 20 inches of rain. So do the up coming few weeks offer any relief from the dry conditions? Yes. It appears the jet stream will become zonal across the country. There will be at least 2 "decent" chances of rain for Jacksonville during the next couple of weeks.  The average January rainfall is around 3.69 inches.

Possible rainfall on or near January 2nd 

Possible Rainfall on or near January 13th

It will take a lot of rainfall to reduce the drought conditions and make up for the nearly 20 inch deficit. The U.S. Drought Monitor has the First Coast in a "Severe Drought." This status is unlikely to drastically change during the remainder of the winter months. Meaning that the area will be going into its normal fire season (April, May, June) like a tinderbox.

>>>Check out the Fire Center for more information.