Firework Ban Update For Northeast Florida And Southeast Georgia

Drought conditions continue to persist over North Florida and South Georgia, despite the recent rains. Officially, the drought measures from "severe" to "extreme." Just over 6 inches of rain has fallen over the last thirty days. The area is still has a deficit of nearly 20 inches, over the last 12 months.

Drought- As of June 28th

As a result, numerous counties continue with burn bans in effect. Many of the burn bans include the use of  fireworks.

Counties That Are NOT Currently Permitting Fireworks:
-Camden, GA
-Glynn, GA (partial- permit allowed)
-Baker
-Clay
-Flagler
-Putnam
-St. Johns
-Union

Counties That Are Currently Permitting Fireworks:
-Alachua
-Duval
-Nassau

*Numerous other counties throughout the State have bans in place. Check out the burn/no burn ordinance map:

Burn Ban Map

Tropical Storm Arlene Forms- No Threat To U.S. Coastline

First Track of Arlene

Arlene is currently a weak tropical storm, with winds of 40 mph. Atmospheric conditions are marginal for additional development. Shear is around 20-30 knots, which is one of the variables that will hinder development. 

Shear- as of June 28th.

An additional feature that will hinder the storm's development is its moisture envelope. It is rather large for such a weak storm. This means that it will struggle with its attempts to wrap-up and get stronger. Think of the scenario that is occurring to be similar of that of a figure skater. A figure skater is not able to gain momentum if his or her arms are floating, in the open air, away from his or her body. The arms create drag. However, if he or she brings in their arms closer to their torso, the momentum will increase. And that is exactly what Arlene will not do, that is bring her arms, of moisture, towards the center of circulation. In addition, she is close to running out of real estate. In other words, there is not much more water that stands between the center her eventual landfall, somewhere in Mexico.

Storm's Moisture Extends Around 800 Miles.

So, where will Arlene likely travel over her next 24 hours over water? A high pressure system that is controlling about two-thirds of the weather, in the eastern part of the U.S., will push the tropical storm towards the west. There is no dispute with this account, since every dynamical model agrees with this scenario.

Synoptic Scenario For Arlene

Model Tracks- As Of June 28th

Landfall Location

With computer models in steadfast agreement, landfall will likely happen between Tuxpan, MX and Tampico, MX, as a weak to moderate tropical storm. Winds will likley be around 55 or 60 mph as the storm makes landfall during the day on Thursday.

Arlene will undoubtedly be remembered for the heavy rain that she will produce. Between 1 and 2 feet of rain is possible in northeast Mexico. Specifically, the heaviest rainfall will fall in the Tampico region of Mexico. Parts of southern Texas will also pick up on much need rainfall. Parts of southern Texas are in an exceptional drought. Between 5-10 inches of rainfall is possible in the Rio Grande Valley.

Precipitation Forecast

Honey Prairie Wildfire Video

Florida Fireworks Ban Map

With Florida's drought conditions continuing, numerous counties have burn bans, in effect, that prohibit fireworks. Duval County is not under a burn ban, which means fireworks are not prohibited. First Coast counties, on the list, include:

-Alachua
-Baker
-Bradford
-Clay
-Flagler
-Hamilton
-Putnam
-St. Johns
-Union

Florida Fireworks Ban Map

June 23rd Storms: Jackonsville

Macclenny Smoke From Union County Fire

Smoke over Macclenny is mostly from a new brush fire that has popped up in the northeast parts of Union County. This wildfire is being labeled as the "LOOP" fire. It has burned around 500 acres and is threatening around 10 structures.

Doppler Radar Indicates New Fire

Baker County Wildfire

The main fire burning in Baker County is the Impassable Bay fire. So far, it has burned 8,700 acres. It is located in the northern parts of the Osceola National Forrest. As of now, the containment is minimal. The actual fire is burning towards US 441, along the Columbia/Baker County line.

Impassable Bay Fire

Baker county is one of the driest in the region. The current drought index, in the county, stands at 690 out of 800. A KBDI reading of 800 indicates desert-like conditions. Significant drought relief is not in the immediate future.

KBDI Drought Index

Tropics Are Quiet

Once again, the next 5-6 weeks will be quiet in the tropics, with minimal development expected. There is a chance that a system tries to get going in the Bay of Campeche. But, it will likely quickly drift into Central America and stay weak.

June 20th Satellite Image

As for the rest of the Atlantic, the tropics will remain unusually quiet for the rest of June and for most, of the month, of July. The MJO, as well as, upward vorticites will remain negative, for the Atlantic Basin. These negative factors will remain in place until the final week of July. It is at that point when tropical development will likely happen. In fact, as July wraps up, there could be a significant cyclone in the Central Atlantic. As August starts, we will likely be tracking our first hurricane, nearing the Caribbean Islands.  

Upward Vorticity Anomalies For Next Several Weeks

 African Dust Likely To Become Widespread

But remember, until late July/early August, tropical development across the entire Atlantic Basin will remain minimal, if not, nonexistent.                             

Smokecast for Jacksonville

Smoke forecast for Sunday

Smoke will blanket parts of Florida, north of I-10, and all of Southeast, Georgia during the day on Sunday. Do not look for any smoke relfief because rain will be hard to come by. On Monday, conditions will deteriorate even further.

Smoke Index: 5 out of 10

Map of Active Forest Fires In Putnam County

Putnam County Active Wildfires

There are currently some 39 active wildfires burning in Putnam County, FL. (Click map for larger view)

Evacuations in Southeast Georgia and Northeast Florida

As for needed rainfall, the rain that has fallen will likely be the majority that we get, for awhile. For the month, only 1.32 inches of rain has fallen as Jacksonville International Airport. That makes this June the second driest on record, so far. The Storms Prediction Center has less than .10 inches of rainfall, for the majority of the area, during the next 5 days. If this is indeed the case, drought and fire conditions will considerably worsen.   

Precipitation for next 5 days.

Here are the latest evacuations and figures:
-Ware County: 200 residents evacuated, so far; 2 structures destroyed
-Charlton County: 150 residents, so far; 3 structures destroyed
-Camden County: 40 residents, so far; 5 structures destroyed
-Flagler County: 27 residents evacuated, so far; 1 structure destroyed
-Putnam County: 130 residents evacuated, so far; no structures destroyed

Active Forest Fires In St. Johns County

Active Wildfires In St. Johns County

There are currently some 21 active wildfires buring in St. Johns County. Click on the map for a larger image.

Map of Active Forest Fires In Flagler County

Latest Fire List For South Georgia and North Florida

Large Fires Around The First Coast

Flagler County:
>The Espanola wildfire has grown to 4,300 acres. It is 40% contained.   
>The White Eagle Fire is about 80% contained, but is burning close to several homes. There have been no evacuation orders, as of yet.

Bradford County:
>The Sante Fe Swamp wildfire has burned 7,500 acres between State Road 100 and County Road 18. At last report, it is 0% contained. Firefighters are having a tough time with the terrain in the area. Southeast 11st Avenue on the west side of the swamp between State Road 100 and County Road 18 is closed to all non-residents. Homes are threatened in the area around the Sante Fe Swamp and evacuations are possible, at any time.

Baker County:
>The Impassable Bay Fires has burned 7,800 acres. Containment is unknown but is small in nature.

Ware County, GA:
>The Honey Prairie Fire is the largest in the region. It is up to 161,010 acres and is 80% contained. The Suwannee Canal Recreation Area, including the Richard S. Bolt Visitor Center, Okefenokee Adventures, and all hiking trails at the refuge's east entrance are closed until the immediate threat of fire is over.

Charlton County, GA:
>The Paxton Road Fire is around 13,000 acres. It is not contained. Homes are threatened.
>Also, the Racepond Fire has burned 8,500 acres, it continues to burn fully out of control.   


>>>As of now 350 people in the area have been evacuated and 7 structures have been lost.

Jacksonville Smoke

Smoke, for the next several days, will be thick in and around North Florida and South Georgia. The wind direction is the main culprit. Westerly winds are sending the smoke from the fires, out to our west, to their east.

Smoke Forecast for the next 7 days

Here are the latest KBDI drought index numbers:

Georgia Counties
Camden: Last Week:  635/800     Today: 710/800
Glynn: Last Week: 716/800     Today: 724/800

Florida Counties
Duval: Last Week: 659/800     Today: 680/800
Clay: Last Week: 662/800     Today: 673/800
Baker: Last Week: 668/800   Today: 691/800
St Johns: 669/800     Today: 686/800
Nassau: 671/800     Today: 690/800
Putnam: 686/800     Today: 698/800
Flagler: 690/800     Today: 701/800

Readings of 601-799 are associated with severe drought and increased wildfire occurrence.Intense, deep burning fires with significant downwind spotting. Extensive mop-up required. Live fuels burn actively.

A reading of 800 indicates desert-like conditions. A catastrophic drought exists.

Heavy Smoke In Jacksonville

Smoke will once again be thick during the morning hours. Tomorrow's smoke will be out of the southeast. While it will smell and look like there is a fire in your backyard, it is not the case. The smoke will come from  2 significant fires in Flagler County.

Saturday June 11th Smoke

 
Update From NWS:

SMOKE FROM THE ESPANOLA WILDFIRE IN FLAGLER COUNTY WILL CONTINUE TO
DRIFT INTO PUTNAM AND ALACHUA COUNTIES AND THEN SHIFT NORTHWARD ONCE
AGAIN ALONG THE ST JOHNS RIVER BASIN IMPACTING PARTS OF THE
JACKSONVILLE METRO AREA BY MORNING. LOCATIONS CLOSE TO AND JUST
DOWNSTREAM OF THE FIRE CAN EXPECT VISIBILITIES OF 1 MILE OR LESS AT
TIMES.

RESIDENTS WHO HAVE RESPIRATORY AILMENTS THAT CAN BE TRIGGERED BY
SMOKE SHOULD CONSIDER STAYING INDOORS. MOTORISTS SHOULD EXERCISE
CAUTION DUE TO POSSIBLE SUDDEN VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS. INTERMITTENT
ROAD CLOSURES ARE POSSIBLE NEAR THE WILDFIRE.

Drought Status for Southeast Georgia and North Florida

Little to no rainfall is expected during the next two weeks. If this is the case, area soils will become desert dry. Here are the latest drought condition readings:

Georgia Counties
Camden: 635/800
Glynn: 716/800

Florida Counties
Duval: 659/800
Clay: 662/800
Baker: 668/800
St Johns: 669/800
Nassau: 671/800
Putnam: 686/800
Flagler: 690/800

Readings of 601-799 are associated with severe drought and increased wildfire occurrence.Intense, deep burning fires with significant downwind spotting. Extensive mop-up required. Live fuels burn actively.

A reading of 800 indicates desert-like conditions. A catastrophic drought exists.

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
ST. JOHNS COUNTY FIRE RESCUE PRESS RELEASE
4455 Avenue A – Suite 100
St. Augustine, Florida 32095
For Immediate Release
Date: 6/07/11
Subject: Special Announcement

St. Johns County Extends Burn Ban for 90 Days

St. Johns County has extended its burn ban for the next 90 days due to weather conditions including lack of substantial rainfall, high temperatures, worsening drought and significant wind. The ban also prohibits the discharge of any fireworks. The burn ban pertains to residential outdoor burning such as leaves, yard debris, fireworks (of any kind), campfires, flares or other outdoor burning devices. Types of burning still allowed are limited to campfires located within a metal ring, and only if they are located within a state park or licensed campground. In addition, cooking fires within a barbeque grill, hibachi or other similar device specifically intended for cooking are still permitted. The current St. Johns County drought index is 682 on the Keetch-Byram Drought Index, on a scale of 0-800. Weather conditions are not expected to improve in the near future, and fire danger is considered extreme. Additionally, the availability of resources needed to fight brush fires is compromised due to the significant number of active wildfires throughout the region and state.Currently, St. Johns County Fire Rescue and the Division of Forestry are monitoring numerous fires within our county. At this time all fires are contained, but both agencies will continue to “mop up” and overhaul the burn areas to prevent further flare ups. Additionally, residents should expect smoke conditions throughout the county depending on wind and humidity levels. Generally these conditions will be worse in the morning hours and decrease through the day as the sea breeze increases.
 
Officials encourage all residents to prepare a home safety plan for all members of their household, which includes two evacuation routes, a ready supply of food, water and medical needs, and a way to leave.Also remember to create a defensible space surrounding your home free of debris. Clean gutters and roofs of leaves or branches that could easily ignite during a fire.

June 6th Storms

Heavy storms once again formed thanks to a weak frontal boundary. Frontal boundaries seem to be the only hope of getting any type of decent rainfall. The bad news is that it will only get harder and harder for frontal boundaries to make it into the area, as the main storm track slides even further north.

Frontal Boundary On June 6th

June 6th Total Rainfall

It looks like the rain that fell on June 6th (0.02 inches at JAX) could set Jacksonville up for one of the driest Junes in the area's history. The later parts of June are notorious for afternoon thunderstorm activity, but this year seems to be an anomaly. Pressures are simply too high to allow any type of mixing and thunderstorm development. In addition, the flow aloft, higher up in the atmosphere, is aligned with the direction of the sea breeze. When this happens, benign, or fair weather typically sets up for  the remainder of the day.

At the current rate of soil moisture loss, local counties will be officially labeled as having soil moisture that is desert-like, by the end of this month.

June Area Forecast For Jacksonville

A typical June in Jacksonville begins the month with (67-87) being the averages. Temperatures gradually rise to an average (72-90) by the end of the month. And precipitation usually averages 5.37 inches.

The forecast for this June is not a good one, considering the fact that North Florida and South Georgia are in a severe drought. Temperatures will be above normal and precipitation will be well below normal.   

June 2011 Temperature Forecast

Temperatures will likely start out averaging in the low to mid 90's. As June progresses, it looks like mid 90's will be the rule of thumb. Expect temperatures to near 100 degrees several days, during the month of June. 

June 2011 Precipitation Forecast

Precipitation will be at least 35% below normal. This means that, June's monthly precipitation total will come in around 2 inches below normal. If this does indeed happen, Flagler County's soil dryness will be officially labeled as desert-like.  

KDBI Drought Index